Will the Fed Raise Rates in September 2026? The August Jobs Report Changed the Odds
Will the Fed raise rates in September 2026? August payrolls rose 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%. Here is what changed before the September FOMC meeting.
Coverage of the US economy through the data businesses and decision-makers actually use: Federal Reserve policy, inflation, employment, growth, productivity and the forces shaping American demand and investment.
Will the Fed raise rates in September 2026? August payrolls rose 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%. Here is what changed before the September FOMC meeting.
US corporate profits from current production reached $4.827 trillion in Q2 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Average US salaries by industry using Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data, with a guide to the sectors that pay the most and why averages differ.
The states where small businesses employ the largest share of private-sector workers, using SBA Office of Advocacy data.
The USDA forecasts $605.1 billion of farm debt in 2026 while researchers investigate credit that may be missing from the official picture.
US GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in Q2 2026, but consumer spending and business investment suggest domestic private demand remained resilient.
US personal income rose 0.4% in July and spending increased 0.2%, while PCE inflation was 3.7% year on year and the saving rate remained low at 3.0%.
US retail and food-service sales fell 0.6% in July 2026 but were 5.0% higher than a year earlier, showing a consumer market that remains active but uneven.
US payroll employment fell by 23,000 in July 2026, unemployment held near 4.1%, and May and June job gains were revised sharply lower.
US nonfarm business productivity increased 1.4% in Q2 2026 as output rose faster than hours worked, while unit labor costs increased 1.3%.
US job openings were little changed at 7.4 million in June 2026, while hires held at 5.3 million and quits remained at 3.2 million.
US personal income rose 0.2% in June 2026 while spending increased 0.3%, pushing the personal saving rate down to 2.7%.
US new single-family home sales rose 1.6% in June 2026 to a 628,000 annual rate, showing modest improvement in a housing market constrained by borrowing costs.
US retail and food-service sales rose 0.2% in June 2026 to $768.6bn and were 6.7% higher than a year earlier.
The US states with the highest GDP per person, using Bureau of Economic Analysis state GDP and population data.
A look at the US states with the strongest employment growth, using Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll and labour-force data.
The US states with the most small businesses, led by California, Texas and Florida, using SBA Office of Advocacy state profiles.
The 10 largest state economies in the United States by real GDP, led by California, Texas, New York and Florida, using Bureau of Economic Analysis data.